Chen haisheng: in the past year, China's energy storage market has been growing rapidly, especially in the user side.
According to our statistics, the new installed capacity on the user side accounted for 59% of the total installed capacity of the newly launched electrochemical energy storage project in 2017, and increased in the area of centralized renewable energy grid-connection and power auxiliary service.
There are three main drivers for growth: the first is the rapid development of distributed renewable energy, which is urgently needed for energy storage.
The intermittent and volatile nature of distributed renewable energy will affect the stability and reliability of distributed systems if energy storage is lacking.
The second comes from market expectations of renewable energy development.
With the large-scale access of renewable energy to the power grid, by the end of 2017, the installed renewable energy accounts for more than 36% of the total power installed in the country, and the proportion in some regions is higher, generating a large number of problems of wind and light abandonment, which is mainly caused by the intermittent and unstable renewable energy, that is, non-dispatchability.
By means of energy storage technology, non-dispatchable "garbage power" can be turned into "high-quality power" that can be dispatchable. At the same time, it can better match the user's load demand in terms of time, such as storing the wind energy in the peak valley in the second half of the night for daytime use.
The third is that the difference in peak and valley electricity prices brings huge market opportunities.
As the load peak valley difference of large power networks, especially in economically developed regions, is getting larger and larger, such as jiangsu, Shanghai, Beijing, guangdong, etc., the peak valley difference has reached 60%~80%, and the load minimum is only 20%. This year, extreme situations still occur, and the peak valley difference of maximum load even reaches 90%.
The energy storage can provide the key technical support for peak load shifting, the peak load gap is widening, and the peak valley price gap is gradually widening, which is a huge market opportunity for energy storage.
In general, the market demand for energy storage is very strong and the development is very rapid. What I am talking about here is large-scale energy storage, excluding the power battery used in electric cars and portable batteries such as mobile phones and laptops.
Chen haisheng: now there are several mature business models.
First, distributed energy storage, which is generally accepted, has increased quite rapidly in the last year.
Second, ancillary frequency modulation services, mainly ancillary power plant frequency modulation, gain revenue by receiving grid incentives and reducing penalties.
Due to the different frequency regulation policies in different provinces, the profit model needs to be determined according to the local policies.
Third, large energy storage power stations combined with large-scale renewable energy.
Energy storage has an amplification or leverage effect in increasing the grid capacity of renewable energy. It has been verified through the example of liaoning grid that 1 megawatt hour of energy storage can increase the grid capacity of renewable energy by 2 to 3 megawatt hours or more.
Because it can make the output of renewable energy more stable, power quality is improved.
Ten megawatt-hours of wind or solar energy, for example, to match one megawatt-hour of energy storage, it's possible that 10 megawatt-hours of power generation quality has improved, resulting in a significant increase in the amount of power used online.
Fourth, there is already an arbitrage model of the difference between peak and trough electricity prices, especially in developed provinces.
Jiangsu, for example, did the earliest and the largest quantity.
The industry as a whole now, peak valley difference up to 70 cents basically can break even, peak valley difference up to 70 cents can achieve profit, next year probably will be a little bit better.
But the peak valley price arbitrage model considering from two aspects, one is a separate accounting peak valley price arbitrage, investment cycle is relatively long, 2 it is to add additional value, such as reducing the value of capacity of electricity, electricity capacity of most provinces is about 20 ~ 30 yuan/kw per month, profits should be counted, to save this indeed is the value of energy storage.
Chen haisheng: first, energy storage enterprises to do their own, training hard.
The investment in the power industry is relatively large and the payback period of investment is relatively long, but the investment recovery is very stable, and the payback period of pv and wind power is also about 8 to 10 years. Don't expect to see huge profits in the energy storage industry.
The first step is to further develop and tackle key energy storage technologies, improve equipment life, reduce costs, improve safety and scale, and lay a good foundation for development.
Second, industrial policies and systems will be improved gradually.
Energy storage companies are struggling, mainly because the multiple value of energy storage is not fully reflected in the price.
In addition to peak-cutting and valley scaling, energy storage is more important in improving the quality of power, which is beneficial to renewable energy companies, power grids and power users, but no one is currently paying the cost.
To this end, national policies and institutions are gradually improving.
Thirdly, energy storage technology is gradually focused.
There may be seven or eight major energy storage technologies in the future, three or four of which will be market players.
After gradual focus, scale effect can be achieved. More manpower and material resources can be concentrated for technical breakthroughs, and then the cost can be reduced, either through technology or scale.
At present, the cost of large-scale new energy storage is rapidly decreasing, and the overall value is comparable with that of traditional pumped storage. The industry has reached the breaking point.
These are my three judgments on the overall development of the energy storage industry. In the future, the market size of the energy storage industry will account for 10%~15% of the power industry, which will become an important support for the energy revolution.